Dead Ball Warm-Up: Your Weekly Football Primer

Welcome to Dead Ball Warm-up!

It’s been a busy week on and off the pitch, and the weekend is expected to be no different. Here are a few stories we think you’ll find interesting.

Guardiola’s Fast-Break Strategy

Pep Guardiola has always been known for surprising his opponents, fans, and even his own players. From inverted wingers to false nines, he’s consistently experimenting with a variety of strategies, making every match feel different and unpredictable. As an example, let’s look at last Sunday’s 1-1 draw with Arsenal. The team ended up with just 33% possession, which was their lowest ever under Pep in the Premier League. Interestingly, the second-lowest game was also against Arsenal in March 2023 (36.5%). Pep Guardiola let the team give up the ball, aiming to punish the opponent on the counter, and Tijani Reijnders’ pass to Erling Haaland for City’s early fast-break goal was a small but telling highlight of that plan.

Figure 1: Erling Haaland’s goal against Arsenal in Premier League Gameweek 5

With that goal, Manchester City scored their third fast-break goal of the season, more than any other team in the Premier League. On the counter, City’s finishing looks like a different beast. Their quick-break shots average 0.27 xG, compared to the season average of just 0.17, which is proof of how lethal they become when the game opens up.

Earlier this year, Pep Guardiola admitted in an interview that the game is shifting towards a more transitional style. He pointed out teams like Bournemouth, Newcastle, Brighton and Liverpool as examples of this “modern football,” and even suggested that the old idea of positional play, the foundation of his own approach, no longer defines the game in the same way. Positional play isn’t dead, but the thrill of the transition era is what’s shaping matches today.

Liverpool showed just how deadly fast breaks can be last season, scoring 14 counter-attack goals, more than any other team. If Manchester City want to really challenge for the title this year, they’ll need to bring that same variety to their game. In the 2025/26 season, the signs have been mixed, but that defence-first, counterattacking performance at Arsenal might just provide a clue to the beginning of a new chapter for Pep Guardiola’s team.

Figure 2: Premier League Fast Break Shots, Goals, xG’s since 2018-19 season

Manchester City’s passing network provided very interesting insights in this game. The graph clearly highlights how often Tijjani Reijnders and Bernardo Silva pushed into the final third with quick transitions, constantly adding depth to City’s attack in the first 30 mintues of the game. Rúben Dias played so high on the pitch underlines the precision of Manchester City’s tactical plan. The graph also illustrates Rodri’s frequent passes to Rúben Dias, particularly in the second half, when Dias increasingly took responsibility in the build-up.

Looking closely at all three pass network graphs, we can see how Manchester City started the game aggressively but gradually slowed down as the match progressed. Arsenal’s relentless pressing eventually led to the equalizer in the final stages. Tracking how City dropped deeper as the match played on reveals some intriguing tactical takeaways.

Figure 3: Manchester City passing network against Arsenal

From Galatasaray to Union Berlin: The Two Faces of Frankfurt

Dino Topmöller’s Eintracht Frankfurt thrives on attacking transitions, gegenpressing, and fast breaks. With sporting director Markus Krösche and a data-driven scouting team, the club is built around a clear, coherent footballing philosophy. The €345m they’ve made from striker sales over the past six years is proof of just how well they’ve done things. Their Champions League opener was a statement: a 5-1 demolition of Turkiye Champions Galatasaray. Eintracht Frankfurt gave up possession completely to their opponents (38% vs 62%) and still won despite the stats (total shots 11 vs 14, successful passes 249 vs 475, and even with xG 1.21 vs 1.09). Obviously, individual mistakes at the back of Galatasaray led to this result, showing once again how effective fast counters and direct play could be used against teams that dominate possession.

A few days later, the Bundesliga game told a different story, though with a familiar twist. Same stadium, different opponent. At home against Union Berlin, Frankfurt suffered a heavy 4-3 defeat and not even the fans’ stunning choreography celebrating 100 years of the Waldstadion could change anything about it. In short, the young team with an average age of 22.7 found themselves caught in the same situation they had laid for Galatasaray earlier in the week. The takeaway? You can dominate possession all you want, but if you’re not strong on the break or adaptable in your tactics, it won’t matter in the end. In today’s evolving game, the decisive factors often lie in the smoothness of direct transitions, rapid counter-attacks, pressing triggers, and adaptive tactical structures that can shift depending on the opponent’s strategy.

Figure 4: Eintracht Frankfurt recent Games vs Galatasaray & Union Berlin

Two player performances were outstanding from the weekend: first, Oliver Burke, who became the first Scottish player to score a hat-trick in the Bundesliga. Second, Andrej Ilic, who contributed three assists, increasing his season assist total to five. The Serbian forward, who joined Union Berlin on loan from Lille in the second half of last season, has impressed with his determination, game intelligence, and presence in the box. In the last 14 matches of the 2024/25 season, he’s scored seven goals. I had the chance to watch him live in Union Berlin vs Hoffenheim last week, and checking his data later only confirmed what I saw on the pitch.

As a target player, Andrej Ilic is the catalyst that Union’s attack has been missing for a long time, since the departure of Kevin Behrens in January 2024. This season, he’s potentially going to be one of the Bundesliga’s most eye-catching forwards. Keep an eye on him now, so you’re ahead of the crowd.

Figure 5: Andrej Ilic’s Bundesliga goals, assists, xG and xAG performance

Ousmane Dembele’s Path to the Ballon d’Or

After leading PSG to their first-ever Champions League title, Ousmane Dembélé has won the 2025 Ballon d’Or. In the women’s game, Spain’s Aitana Bonmatí made history by lifting the award for the third year in a row, joining Platini and Messi in that elite group. The Ballon d’Or looks at three things: Individual performances and decisive moments, team success and trophies, class and fair play. Rather than diving into the bigger debate about the trophy, let’s focus on Dembélé himself. He scored 35 goals in 53 matches across all competitions as PSG secured a treble: Ligue 1, the Coupe de France, and their long-awaited Champions League last season. The numbers are impressive, but the real story is how a player once seen as inconsistent finally found his peak under Luis Enrique.

Enrique had trusted Dembélé since their Barcelona days. After Mbappé’s departure, PSG’s board told him he would be the leader of the attack. But the first months were rough. He started out wide on the right, and after being late to training before a 2-0 defeat at Arsenal, he was benched for two league games. Then came December 15 against Lyon. Back in the starting XI, everything changed. PSG’s style took shape, and Dembélé looked like a different player. Being two-footed and comfortable in central areas, he had already shown flashes of this role at Rennes, Dortmund, and even under Ronald Koeman at Barça. With Enrique giving him that freedom, he reached the best form of his career.

Figure 6: Ousmane Dembele 2024-25 season performance stats

We need to speak about Crystal Palace

Seventeen games unbeaten in all competitions. That run goes all the way back to April and in the middle of it they’ve beaten Man City at Wembley in the FA Cup final and Liverpool on penalties in the Community Shield. This is Crystal Palace’s longest streak since 1969, when they went 18 without losing. And here’s the clincher: since the Premier League began, only three teams outside the so-called “Big Six” have ever achieved a longer unbeaten run.

We’ve been big admirers of Oliver Glasner since his Eintracht Frankfurt days, and it’s clear he’s had a massive influence on this run. Also worth mentioning is Jean-Philippe Mateta. Against West Ham he scored his 50th goal in all competitions for Palace, 34 of those have come in just 68 games under Glasner. He’s not just one of the most in-form strikers in the league right now, but also the one who’s lifted Palace’s hold-up play and transition game to another level. So, are you ready for C.Palace vs Liverpool now?

Figure 7: Longest unbeaten runs by non Big Six Clubs in Premier League

Shall we take a look at the players with the most accurate passes in the opposition half? Here’s the list from the 2025/26 season across Europe’s top five leagues. There is no surprise that Pedri and Vitinha set the bar high this season. Pedri, Barça’s midfield metronome, has played five games and completed 323 accurate passes, averaging 68.7 per 90. He’s the anchor of Barcelona’s midfield, orchestrating play with precision and control.

But right next to him, PSG’s Vitinha is quietly building an even more impressive record. In just four matches, he’s managed 318 accurate passes, with an eye-catching 90.9 per 90. That volume, at that efficiency, is a statement, Vitinha is influential. PSG’s midfield dominance doesn’t stop there. Fabián Ruiz (216 passes, 74.5 per 90) also makes the top seven, while Achraf Hakimi joins from deeper out wide, producing 210 passes in four games, a strong 63.6 per 90. It paints a clear picture: PSG aren’t just winning games, they’ve built a core of players who can overwhelm their opponents high up the pitch with relentless, precise circulation.

Figure 8: Top Players by Accurate Opposition-Half Passes, 2025/26 Big Five Leagues

Quick Hits

✏️Aston Villa’s president of football operations Monchi (Ramon Rodriguez Verdejo) has left the club after their winless start to the season. The 57-year-old Spanish football director has been at Villa since June 2023, where he reunited with Unai Emery.
✏️Arsenal’s Noni Madueke is expected to miss around two months of action after sustaining a knee injury during Sunday’s match against Manchester City.
✏️Barcelona’s Camp Nou return has once again been delayed. This weekend’s La Liga game and the October 1 Champions League game against PSG will both be played at Montjuïc. They haven’t been back in their iconic home since the €1.5bn renovation began in June 2023.
✏️Liverpool’s 18-year-old defender Giovanni Leoni sustained an ACL injury in the Carabao Cup win against Southampton and he could be sidelined for a long period.
✏️Chaos in Nice,102 Roma ultras arrested before the Europa League tie, accused of carrying weapons and starting a fight.
✏️Barcelona’s Gavi will miss up to five months after knee surgery.
✏️Some interesting ties from the EFL Cup fourth round draw: Wrexham v Cardiff City (all-Welsh tie 👀), Newcastle United v Tottenham, Liverpool v Crystal Palace, Wolves v Chelsea.
✏️Julián Álvarez comes into the Madrid derby on fire fresh off a hat-trick that sealed Atlético’s 3-2 win over Rayo Vallecano and their second LaLiga victory of the season.
✏️Manchester United are set to sign Colombian talent Cristian Orozco (17) from Fortaleza CEIF. The defensive midfielder will officially join after his 18th birthday in July 2026. Orozco was part of Colombia’s U17 squad that reached the South American Championship final this year.
✏️Sergio Busquets announces his retirement. The 37-year-old Inter Miami midfielder confirmed he’ll hang up his boots at the end of the MLS season.

📺 Weekend watchlist

26 September Friday
Bayern Munchen vs Werder Bremen 20.30 (CET)
Strasbourg vs Marseille 20.45 (CET)

27 September Saturday
Mainz vs B.Dortmund 15.30 (CET)
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool 16.00 (CET)
Chelsea vs Brighton 16.00 (CET)
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid 16.15 (CET)
Juventus vs Atalanta 18.00 (CET)

28 September Sunday
Lille vs Lyon 17.15 (CET)
Newcastle vs Arsenal 17.30 (CET)
Barcelona vs R.Sociedad 18.30 (CET)
Milan vs Napoli 20.45 (CET)

That’s it! Enjoy your weekend and the matches, catch you soon!