Dead Ball Warm-Up: Your Weekend Football Guide is Here

👋 Hey everyone,

Starting this week, every Friday you’ll get a fresh edition of 'Dead Ball Warm-Up' – your weekly guide to the football weekend.

Here’s what you’ll find inside:

• ⚽ Midweek recap → Top stories and highlights from Tuesday to Thursday

• 🏟 Weekend watchlist → A guide to the weekend's must-watch matches and what makes them interesting.

• 🔎 Spotlight → Player performances, coaches, or teams to monitor

• 📊 Prediction corner → bold predictions for the matches on the weekend (sports betting fans will enjoy this, but really it's just for fun)

• 📝 Quick hits → stats, notes, and interesting stuff you might have missed

Think of it as your Friday football ritual, packed with just enough to prepare you for weekend action. Here’s everything you need to catch up before the matches kick off. As always, comment anytime and let us know what you’re enjoying (or what you’d like to see changed) in the newsletter.

Champions League Debutants 🌍 A Quick Geographic Overview

In midweek, three clubs secured their first-ever spots in the Champions League group stage and their locations are just as eye-catching as their results.

• Kairat Almaty (Kazakhstan)

• Bodø/Glimt (Norway)

• Pafos FC (Cyprus)

Kairat Almaty advanced after a dramatic penalty shootout win over Celtic, as their goalkeeper Temirlan Anarbekov made three crucial penalty saves.

Bodø/Glimt lost 2-1 to Sturm Graz, but their 5-0 win in the first leg was enough to advance. The Norwegian club, based just 200 km north of the Arctic Circle and playing at the cozy 8,270-seat Aspmyra Stadion, remains fresh in memory with their fairytale run in last season’s UEFA Europa League.

Pafos FC is a young Cyprus club founded only 11 years ago. They secured a late 1-1 draw on Tuesday against Red Star Belgrade and clinched a 3-2 aggregate victory. Last season’s Cyprus League champions have recently signed former Chelsea and Arsenal defender David Luiz and they will be the third club from the country to play in the CL, after Anorthosis Famagusta and Apoel.

From the Arctic Circle to the Caspian, and down to sunny Cyprus, these newcomers bring diverse geography and fresh stories to the Champions League 2025-26 season.

Figure 1: Uefa Champions League 2025-26 Fixtures

★European champions Paris Saint-Germain will play Bayern Munich and Barcelona in the league phase of CL, while Real Madrid’s Trent Alexander Arnold will return to Anfield to face Liverpool.

★Real Madrid will also face Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City in the group phase. During the 2020s, Real Madrid and Manchester City have faced off 10 times and this will be the 11th time the two sides will play each other in the UEFA Champions League.

★Kevin de Bruyne’s Napoli will visit the Etihad Stadium and this will be another emotional game for both KDB and Manchester City fans.

★Tottenham Hotspur will face some familiar opponents in the group stages of this season’s Champions League. As part of the fixture, they will travel to Bundesliga side Eintracht Frankfurt and Norway’s Bodo/Glimt, who they beat in the quarter-finals and semi-finals of last year's Europa League campaign.

★Real Madrid will play Kairat of Almaty, Kazakhstan away in the Champions League. Geographically, Madrid is closer to both New York City and Barbados than Almaty.

★ Newcastle vs Barcelona, Barcelona vs Paris Saint Germain matches are also interesting fixtures in the upcoming CL season.

Quick Hits

There are four days left in the summer transfer window, and clubs across Europe are still trying to do deals.

• Chelsea have agreed a fixed fee of £40m with Manchester United for Alejandro Garnacho. This one is brave, right?

• Newcastle United have reached an agreement with Stuttgart for young striker Nick Woltemade. We admire Nick Woltemade so much, and this transfer promises significant potential, particularly if he steps into Alexander Isak's role in the long term. The 23-year-old forward was impressive for Stuttgart last season, scoring 17 goals in 33 games, and last month Bayern Munich made three bids for him and Stuttgart rejected all the offers.

• Figure 2: Nick Woltemade vs Alexander Isak 2024-25 season comparison

• Tottenham have turned their focus to Xavi Simons, as they look for attacking reinforcements following failed moves for Gibbs-White and Eze, plus Maddison’s injury blow. Chelsea is also on the table, and it will be exciting to follow the winner of Xavi Simons.

• Burnley have agreed a deal with Benfica for midfielder Florentino Luis.

• Arsenal forward Kai Havertz has undergone knee surgery. The team is hopeful for his recovery time (Not months, weeks)

• Besiktas have announced that they have parted ways with Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. Black Eagles were knocked out of the Europa Conference League by Swiss club Lausanne in the Europa Conference League on Thursday night (Sergen Yalçın smiles if he is reading this newsletter).

Figure 3: Ole Gunnar Solskjaer Managerial Stats

• Fenerbahce has parted ways with head coach Jose Mourinho, the club announced in the morning. The move came two days after Fenerbahce was knocked out of the UEFA Champions League playoffs by Benfica.

• Chelsea's summer of impressive selling looks set to continue as they have agreed a €42m deal with Milan for Christopher Nkunku.

• Milan also have shown interest in Akanji, though City’s demand for a permanent move could force them to move players out first.

• Juventus defender Nicolo Savona is in London for a medical as Nottingham Forest close in on a €15m move for the 22-year-old right-back.

📺⚽ Weekend Watchlist

🍿It's time to say hello to a new Bundesliga derby!
Hamburger SV vs St. Pauli. What a wonderful start to the weekend! (Friday 20.30 CET).

🍿Leeds United vs Newcastle United
After losing a dramatic game 3-2 against Liverpool, how Eddie Howe's team will respond against Leeds United, who are unbeaten in the last 21 home league games (W18, D3). (Saturday 18.30 CET)

🍿Chelsea vs Fulham
After back-to-back capital matches (vs. Palace and West Ham), Chelsea will face their third London opponent of the season against Fulham in Saturday’s early kickoff (Saturday 13.30 CET).

🍿Hoffenheim vs E.Frankfurt
Don’t mind those who say, ‘I only watch the Premier League, mate.’ This one is worth your time, with action and goals expected. Hoffenheim surprised in the first week and defeated Leverkusen, while Can Uzun’s impressive performance was key for Frankfurt in the 4-1 win of the first week against Werder Bremen (Saturday 15.30 CET).

🍿Real Madrid vs Mallorca
Maybe another chance to watch a bit more of Arda Güler? If football is a game of joy, Arda is already among its finest artists. Hopefully, you didn’t miss his brilliant performance last week (Saturday 21.30 CET).

🍿Arsenal vs Liverpool
Last-minute winners against Bournemouth and Newcastle don’t necessarily mean Liverpool are in top form, this is the real test! (Sunday 17.30 CET).

🍿Brighton vs Manchester City
After a 4-0 opening-day win against Wolves, Manchester City were beaten 2-0 at home to Spurs. Brighton, meanwhile, has generated an impressive 3.91 xG across their first two games. Only three teams have done better but have managed just one goal so far (Sunday 15.00 CET).

Figure 4: English Premier League Teams with +2 xG after 2 Gameweeks

Prediction Corner

Hasan 🎲

Lyon vs Marseille – BTS @1.45

Lyon have made a strong start to the season, keeping clean sheets in their wins over Lens and Metz. I'm impressed with the chemistry between Fofana, Mikautadze, and new signing Pavel Sulc from Plzen. On the other side, Roberto De Zerbi’s Marseille are already one of the most entertaining sides in the league. With the attacking firepower of Greenwood, Aubameyang, and Gouiri, this game promises goals. I’m backing both teams to score.

B.Dortmund vs Union Berlin — Serhou Guirassy to score @1.73

Dortmund opened the season with a wild 3-3 draw at St. Pauli, throwing away a 3-1 lead late on. Steffen Baumgart’s Union Berlin, meanwhile, kicked things off with a 2-1 win over Stuttgart. Interestingly, there’s never been a draw between these two sides in 12 meetings. Despite missing a penalty last week and scoring one, I thought Guirassy looked sharp and hungry and I expect him to have another productive season. I’m backing Serhou Guirassy to score here at 1.73.

Chelsea vs Fulham - Chelsea to win @1.57

Cole Palmer is doubtful for the game, with reports suggesting he’s more likely to miss out. This derby is arguably one of the most one-sided in English football. Chelsea have lost just three of their 36 Premier League games against Fulham.

That said, Marco Silva’s side earned a memorable Boxing Day win at Stamford Bridge last season, coming from behind to claim a 2-1 victory thanks to Rodrigo Muniz’s 95th-minute strike. This time here, however, I’m expecting Chelsea to win.

Oktay 🎲

Nottingham Forest vs West Ham - Nottingham Forest to win @1.73

Forest are in strong form, taking 4 points from their first two games, including a dominant home win over Brentford and a resilient comeback at Palace. West Ham, meanwhile, have opened with two defeats, conceding 8 goals. Given Forest’s home strength, it’s hard to see the Hammers taking anything from this fixture.

Sunderland vs Brentford - Sunderland - Draw /double chance @1.57

Both sides have shown similar levels of performance in their opening matches, setting up a tight midfield battle. However, with home advantage and a strong backing from their fans, Sunderland are well-placed to avoid defeat here.

Wolverhampton vs Everton - under 2.5 goals @1.68

Wolves have struggled badly so far, losing both matches without scoring (0 goals for, 5 conceded). Everton, boosted by Grealish’s arrival and renewed spirit, will likely prioritise a solid defensive setup to secure at least a point. With Wolves desperate for their first result but still lacking attacking output, this fixture sets up as a low-scoring affair.

Cardiff vs Plymouth - 1 Cardiff to win @1.53

Cardiff have hit the ground running in League One, sitting top after five matches unbeaten (4W, 1D). Their form is red-hot, especially at home. Plymouth, also recently relegated, is struggling with four defeats already and only a single win to their name. With Cardiff’s momentum and home advantage, this looks like a straightforward victory for the Bluebirds.

*Those are just fun predictions, enjoy them as a light weekend activity, just like we do!

*Odds sourced from OddsChecker.

That’s all for this week. Have a wonderful weekend, and we’ll catch up with you soon!