Dead Ball Digest: Weekend Stories You Can't Miss

Greetings, friends. Another round of Dead Ball Analytics Digest is here, bringing you stories, stats and everything in between from the weekend's football.

Coventry 1 vs Sunderland 2

After a long and exhausting season, the Championship Play-Offs always bring drama and tension. Sunderland booked their Play-Off ticket nearly two months ago. Since then, things have gone downhill with five defeats, one draw, and just a single goal in their last six games. It’s a streak that leaves fans quite nervous. My admiration for Sunderland goes back to the days of (99-00) Kevin Phillips, Thomas Sørensen, and Michael Gray, long before Netflix thought it was cool. That said, I’d love to see them triumph at Wembley.

Turning to the match itself, Sunderland’s coach Regis Le Bris responded to Frank Lampard’s possession-based style with patience and a smart tactical setup, grabbing a big advantage in the first leg. For the home side, Milan van Ewijk’s individual error was hugely unfortunate and arguably the moment that decided the match.
As the numbers show, it was a close game: xG was 1.70 vs 1.48, and touches in the opposition box favoured Coventry, 31 to 17. Sunderland may have a slight advantage for now, but the tie isn't yet over. The return leg is on Tuesday at the Stadium of Light, and it’s likely to be an even tougher test both mentally and tactically.

Southampton 0 vs Manchester City 0

Manchester City came into this one in form, winning four straight matches. Pep made a few changes at the back, with Rico Lewis and Gvardiol starting instead of Nico O’Reilly and Matheus Nunes. Last week, during the Wolves match, I felt Pep's decision to substitute Nico O'Reilly was a clear signal of this rotation. ↔️ Omar Marmoush, İlkay Gündoğan, and Jeremy Doku were also left on the bench. The most significant lineup change was the return of Erling Haaland to the starting XI after a six-week absence. Ahead of the FA Cup final, that was an important boost for City, with Haaland's return adding power they need for the final.

Pep started without a natural wingers, with McAtee and Foden playing wide and De Bruyne playing centrally just behind Haaland. In the second half, Doku came on for McAtee, and he made a huge difference. Marmoush and Savinho came on late to turn things around. In the final minutes, Marmoush hit the post, but City couldn’t find a way through. The xG tells a better story: 0.10 vs 1.82. It's difficult to believe at first glance, but City had 77 touches in the opposition box compared to just 7 from the other side.

Kevin De Bruyne, likely playing some of his final games for the club was outstanding once again: 4 key passes, 5 shots, 3 accurate long balls, 4 duels won, 0.81 xA. The next big match for City: the FA Cup final against Crystal Palace on Saturday.

Atletico Madrid 4 vs Real Sociedad 0

Simeone's team was supposed to have a tough night against Real Sociedad as they were without Julian Alvarez, but then Alexander Sørloth appeared, delivering the most impressive performance of his career. His first three goals, in four minutes, is the fastest hat-trick in La Liga history. And he continued to score, netting his fourth goal in the 30th minute.🔥 The previous record belonged to Bebeto who scored three goals in four minutes and 43 seconds back in 1995.

Now the next challenge for Sørloth: Score five times in a single match like Bebeto! Interestingly, Sørloth is no stranger to wild scoring nights as he did the same (4) against Madrid last season, but in a Villarreal shirt. Yes, it's May again. Not sure what it is with the Norwegian striker and springtime, but something definitely works. 🍀🌸🌼

Figure 1: Big 5 Leagues Minutes per Goals vs Goals Scoring Gain % Comparison

Lazio 1 vs Juventus 1

Everything seemed to be going smoothly for Juventus at the Olimpico. Despite playing with 10 men for the last 30 minutes after Kalulu's unnecessary foul, they were 1-0 up heading into stoppage time (+7). However, they couldn’t hold on for another 90 seconds, as Vecino levelled the score. Lazio’s pressure in the final minutes was intense, with the stats backing it up: xG of 1.67 vs 0.81, and 30 vs 15 touches in the opposition box. This result kept the race for fourth place heated, with all eyes on Monday night's match.

Lazio and Juventus fans will hope Atalanta can cause Roma to drop points, otherwise Roma will overtake both teams and move into fourth, two points ahead. With just two weeks left in 🇮🇹 Serie A, these matches are must-watch, as four teams battle for a Champions League spot and it looks like the race will be decided at the photo finish.

Figure 2: Serie A - League Table and remaining matches

Benfica 1 vs Sporting Lisbon 1

I watched the match along with my Portuguese buddy Bruno in a sports bar. He is a Benfica fan and he believes that they have a chance to be champions next week. As I told him, I'm sorry but it's not going to happen. 🙅‍♂️ I don't think Lisbon will make any mistakes in the final week, even though they have a strong opponent in the final game, V. Guimaraes. There will also be a tough challenge for Benfica in their last match: Braga away. Whenever I make a prediction like this, the opposite usually happens, we'll see. 😅

The 1-1 draw did not favor Benfica. (xG 1.32 vs 0.32, touches in the opposition box 42 vs 8). Sporting began the match with a shocking goal from Trincao, but lost control in the second half as Benfica took over. 🔗 Pavlidis' involvement in the goal was fantastic. For this game, he was the player with the most touches in the opposition box (16), the most dribbles (6), and xA (1.24). He has reached a total of 28 goals this season, with 18 in the league and 7 assists. If he stays at Benfica next season, I have a feeling those numbers could hit new heights.

Monaco 2 vs Lyon 0

By winning this game, Monaco have officially qualified for next year's Champions League, something not many people predicted one week ago. It was a night where all their rivals dropped points in matches that kicked off simultaneously: Nice lost 2-0 to Rennes, Lille were beaten 2-0 by Brest, Strasbourg upset by Angers 2-1. A dream weekend, where every single result went their way. 🎁

Adi Hütter’s side had several solid performances. Camara, Akliouche, Minamino, and Teze were all on it. However, the star of the evening was Dennis Zakaria. With 62 touches, a 96% pass accuracy, 5 duels won out of 9, completed the match with a powerful header, Zakaria was everywhere.

Figure 3: Denis Zakaria 2024-25 season Pass Target Heatmap

Le Havre 1 vs Marseille 3

Marseille have arguably been one of the most enjoyable teams to watch this season. In his debut season in France, Roberto De Zerbi has successfully managed his team to a Champions League spot for next season. They're the second-highest scoring side in the league (70), behind only PSG, and they’ve also collected the most points on the road (31) after PSG, both solid indicators of their strength and consistency.

Individually, the winter signing Algerian Amine Gouiri performed well again, scoring twice in this game to take his season total to 10 goals and 3 assists. Considering he's only started 11 matches, that's an impressive effort. Pierre-Emile Höjbjerg was composed and effective in midfield, with 93% pass accuracy, 3 key passes, 2 tackles, and 2/3 accurate long balls. And Mason Greenwood? He scored another brilliant goal, his 20th of the season. This city and team are a perfect match for him. I really want to catch a game at the 🏟️ Velodrome next season. There is no other fanbase in France that excites me more than Marseille’s.

Hamburg 6 vs Ulm 1

Six-time German champions Hamburg SV have been promoted back to the Bundesliga after a seven-year break, with a sensational 6-1 win against Ulm. The Volkspark arena witnessed a roller coaster of emotions. Hamburg fans celebrated their team's promotion back to the Bundesliga, while Ulm players were left in tears as their relegation to the 3. Liga was confirmed after just one season in the 2. Bundesliga.

Big congratulations to Merlin Polzin, a local manager who truly embodies the spirit of the club. When Steffen Baumgart stepped down in November, Polzin was appointed on a temporary basis, and Hamburg were ranked eighth in the table at that time. He has done an excellent job since then.

Promotion is never easy, as proved by Hamburg’s seven-year struggle to return to the Bundesliga. Championships are won as a team, but in Hamburg's special season, credits to Davie Selke (23 goals) and Ransford Königsdörffer (14 goals) accounted for 47.37% of the team's total goals. The best is yet to come: next season will feature the much-awaited Bundesliga derby between St. Pauli and Hamburg. ⚡

Newcastle 2 vs Chelsea 0

The battle for Champions League qualification has taken a dramatic shift, with Newcastle United earning a crucial game against a ten-man Chelsea. With Trippier, Hall, Willock, and Joelinton unavailable, manager Eddie Howe opted for a back three of Schar, Burn, and Botman. The Magpies made an electrifying start to the game with Tonali's early goal, assisted by Jacob Murphy. In the last minute, Bruno Guimaraes sealed the victory with a stunning strike. 🚀

On the other hand, it was far from a day to remember for Chelsea. Nicolas Jackson's aerial challenge with Botman left the Dutch defender bleeding, and shortly after, the striker received a red card following a VAR review. XG 1.56 vs 0.69, touches in the opposition box 38 vs 23, shots on target 6 vs 3. Newcastle United deserved to win with a dominant game, and now morale, motivation, and momentum are with them.

Leverkusen 2 vs Dortmund 4

Xabi Alonso's final home game at the BayArena had it all, except the result Leverkusen needed. They dominated: xG 2.62 vs 1.42, shots on target 10 vs 5, touches in the box 38 vs 13, and corners 12 to zero. But Dortmund? Brutal. They took their chances and walked away with a 4-2 win. After Freiburg’s win on Saturday the pressure was extremely high for the Dortmund team. As well, Leverkusen is the last team you'd want to face in a win or die game. However, Dortmund succeeded.

Florian Wirtz was brilliant: 4 key passes, 89% pass accuracy, xG 0.67, 10 box touches, xGOT 0.69, xA 0.59. He delivered a complete performance. On the other side, Gregor Kobel was the key player for Dortmund, with Brandt, Ryerson and Guirassy putting in good performances, too. One round to go. Dortmund host Kiel next weekend and they need all three points and will hope Freiburg fails to win against Frankfurt. 🤷‍♂️

Barcelona 4 vs Real Madrid 3

🍿xG 4.2 vs 2.66! It was a spectacular game on Sunday afternoon, with Ferran Torres delivering a stunning performance by providing three assists. 🧯For Barcelona fans, it's been a season filled with glory, while for Real Madrid, it marks the end of the Ancelotti era and the beginning of a new chapter. Barcelona has been the winner in all four El Clasico matches this season. They have won 4-0 and 4-3 in La Liga, 5-2 in the Spanish Super Cup, and 3-2 in the Copa del Rey, giving no chance to their rivals. Across these four games, we witnessed an incredible 23 goals, for an average of 5.75 per match, an extraordinary rate!

Hansi Flick's team has reached 82 points, holding a seven-point lead over second-place Real Madrid, with just three games left for both sides. Barcelona could secure the title Thursday night when they face city rivals Espanyol. A win for Flick's side would seal the championship, regardless of Madrid's result against Real Mallorca at the Bernabeu on Wednesday.

Feyenoord 2 vs Psv Eindhoven 3

Feyenoord began the match with a bang in front of their passionate crowd, scoring two goals within the first 10 minutes, however, things shifted in PSV's favor in the second half. The visitors scored early in the second half with an in-form Ivan Perisic, but it was Noa Lang, who was the star late in the game. Two goals in the final 15 minutes, including a dramatic winner in the 98th minute, sealed a memorable comeback victory. The xG stats were 1.17 to 2.92, and PSV dominated with 56 touches in the penalty area compared to Feyenoord's 13. Other key players for PSV included Tilman and Veerman, whose energetic plays in midfield were instrumental.

Following Ajax's surprising loss to NEC Nijmegen, PSV Eindhoven regained hope for the title, as the gap between the two teams is now just one point with two games remaining. This has shaped up to be one of the most compelling Eredivisie seasons in recent memory. PSV pulled ahead early, Ajax made a strong comeback, and now the title race is neck and neck once again. With just two weeks to go, it’s all to play for.

Figure 4: Noa Lang 2024-25 season Touch Heatmap

Liverpool 2 vs Arsenal 2

Liverpool were 2-0 up within 20 minutes, but Arsenal were sharper, more decisive, and more clinical in the second half. xG? 2.39 vs 2.58. Touches in the opposition box? Both sides had 36. Mikel Merino made some wild history: with his goal and red card, he became the fourth Arsenal player to do both in the same match. The others? Aubameyang, Arteta, and Ian Wright. Trent Alexander-Arnold started on the bench, with Arne Slot giving Conor Bradley a chance, but when he came on in the 66th minute, he was booed by some parts of the crowd. He does not deserve this, in my opinion.

The draw means that Arsenal now need just one more point to secure a Champions League spot next season. Luis Diaz was Liverpool’s standout, while Leandro Trossard played a vital role for Arsenal. He constantly cut inside during the build-up, disrupting Liverpool’s full-back shape, and the numbers back it up: 10 build-up involvements, 22 total carries, 3 progressive carries, 3 progressive passes. What's next? Liverpool go to Brighton. Arsenal host Newcastle.

Torino 0 vs Inter 2

Inter secured a 2-0 win in a match delayed nearly 30 minutes due to heavy rain and strong winds. The goals came from Zalewski’s wonder strike and Asllani’s penalty, closing the gap to Napoli down to just one point. xG: 1.57 vs 2.60. Still carrying Champions League fatigue, Simone Inzaghi made some rotations as Çalhanoğlu, Barella, Dumfries, Acerbi, Dimarco, and keeper Sommer all started on the bench, though some were called upon in the second half. It was also a personal milestone for Simone Inzaghi: his 150th game in charge and his 100th win with Inter.

This was also the first time in 2025 Inter have kept back-to-back clean sheets, a minor but important detail. Torino details: This was Torino's first home league defeat in 2025. Among Torino's positives was the debut of 17-year-old Alessi Cacciamani, the youngest player in the club's history, joining legends like Fabio Quagliarella and Jacopo Mariani.

Napoli 2 vs Genoa 2

Before kick-off, Scott McTominay received the Serie A Player of the Month award, and he played with that energy in his boots. Just 15 minutes into the match, he provided an excellent assist for Lukaku, increasing his Serie A season total to 15 goal contributions (11 goals, 4 assists). After this draw, Napoli are still leading with a 1-point difference and two games to go, but Conte knows there's no room for error. He continued to play with the same XI that beat Lecce last week, while Neres started on the bench again.

On the other end of the pitch, Genoa made things complicated. Patrick Vieira made a bold call in goal, handing a first start of the season to Swiss keeper Benjamin Siegrist, and he did not disappoint with 8 saves and an XGOT of 2.02. Alongside him, Mexican centre-back Johan Vasquez, who scored their second goal, was equally impressive. The numbers? xG: 1.70 vs 0.59, touches in the opposition box: 30 vs 10.

Napoli’s upcoming fixtures: Parma away, then Cagliari at home, while Inter host Lazio before a tricky trip to Como on the final day. Take a deep breath, we’ve got an action-packed two weeks ahead. 🚀

⚽️ Quickfire Takeaways⚡️: No time for deep dives, just football espresso shots

📌Basel's Xherdan Shaqiri scored an incredible hat-trick in just nine minutes while his team was down to ten men against Lugano. 🔥 Shaqiri’s performance this season : 20 goals, 9 assists in Swiss Super League.
📌Ajax suffered a shocking 3-0 defeat at home to NEC Nijmegen, and with just two games left, the gap to second-place PSV Eindhoven is down to just one point. Farioli’s side will travel to Groningen next week, while PSV host Heracles in a crucial round of fixtures.
📌In Portugal, Porto earned a vital 2-1 away win against Boavista with goals from ⭐ Rodrigo Mora and Marcano. With Braga dropping points, Porto now have a huge advantage in the race for a Champions League qualification spot with just one match to go. You should see Rodrigo Mora’s stunning goal.
📌In the Danish Superliga Championship Group, Copenhagen and Midtjylland drew 1-1, pushing the title race to the final two weeks. Copenhagen (57 points) heads into the last two matches with a one-point lead over Midtjylland (56 points).
📌In the Belgian League Championship Group, Club Brugge secured a 2-0 away win against Genk, keeping their title hopes alive heading into the final two weeks. US Gilloise remained at the top with 50 points, just one point ahead of Club Brugge with 49.
📌Frankfurt drew 2-2 at home against St. Pauli. Arthur Theate was a standout player on the field. He made 6 clearances, won 14 of 15 duels, and completed 113 of 125 passes with %90.4 accuracy.
📌Following a 2-4 defeat to Borussia Dortmund, Leverkusen fans bid farewell to Xabi Alonso in a spectacular style.
📌During the Nottingham Forest vs Leicester match this weekend, a banner in the stands stood out, featuring one of Brian Clough’s iconic quotes. Felt like the perfect way to wrap up the week, with a quote that says it all.

📺Unless you’ve got something special lined up tonight, ⚽Atalanta vs Roma should be top of your list. (CET:20.45)

🧨Note: We're working on some updates for DoppelScout and preparing an interesting analysis on Kevin De Bruyne to share with you in the coming days.

That’s all for this week! Thank you for reading, we’ll catch up soon.