Dead Ball Digest: Weekend Football Thrills & Spills!

Good afternoon, this is Dead Ball Analytics Digest. We bring you top football insight each Monday as satisfying as a last-minute winner on a cold Sunday night.

Sporting Lisbon 3 vs Moreirense 1

Viktor Gyökeres delivered a one-man show with a hat-trick, each goal a different act in a play: classic poacher vibes inside the box, fluid movement, and he wrapped it all up with a stunning free kick. The Swedish striker has now scored 34 goals in 29 Primeira Liga matches, breaking his own record week by week. No surprises here, he'll be the most in-demand player on the market this summer.​

While checking some historical data, I came across Argentinian Hector Yazalde's mind-blowing 46-goal season in 1973–74 and Eusebio’s 42-goal in 1967-68 season. I've heard stories about the Eusebio from my dad and watched some of his goals on YouTube, however I remember Mario Jardel's era much better. Yes, I'm from the generation that watched Bugs Bunny in the morning. Jardel’s finishing inside the box was unforgettable. Even if Gyökeres doesn't hit those incredible numbers, one thing's for sure: he's had a sensational season.​

As for the Primeira Liga, it seems the title will be decided in the Benfica vs. Sporting Lisbon derby in the second week of May. That venue combines an amazing atmosphere, a vibrant city, fantastic food, and the season's grand finale. I can't stop checking flights to Lisbon. ✈️​

Figure 1: Sporting Lisbon’s top goal-scoreres in the last 25 years

Porto 2 vs Famalicão 1

Alright, I know we kicked this off with a strong Portuguese flavour and I know it’s not the best year to bring up Porto. Still, hear me out: Rodrigo Mora de Carvalho is something else. He was outstanding at the Dragão with two goals on Friday night. If you’re curious to see what the hype is about, here’s the highlights. Born in 2007, raised in the Porto academy, and already dancing with the big boys, this kid isn’t wasting any time.

Mora is a versatile player who is mainly used in central areas for more creative freedom, but can also perform effectively on both wings. With quick feet, sharp acceleration, and high game intelligence, he can adapt smoothly to different tactical systems. By the way he didn’t just show up this weekend. He was also the top scorer of both the 2023-24 UEFA Youth League and the 2024 UEFA European Under-17 Championship.

In the 2024-25 season, his improvement continued with 8 goals and 3 assists in just 1363 minutes. It might be a bit early and bold to say, but I’ve got a feeling this kid will leave Porto for a record-breaking 💰 transfer soon

Figure 2: Rodrigo Mora Touch Heatmap against Famalicão

Watford 1 Burnley 2 / Oxford 0 vs Leeds United 1

With a 46-match schedule, a rhythm of its own, and promotion money that changes everything, the EFL Championship isn’t just a league, it’s a ride. Defensively rock solid Burnley and Leeds United, who lost last season’s play-off final to Southampton, are now walking side by side to the Premier League. Unless something shockingly unexpected happens in the final three games.

Burnley came into this match aiming to equal Port Vale’s legendary record of 30 clean sheets from the 1953-54 season. But that hope was dashed early, as Mamadou Doumbia scored in the 9th minute. Still, worth noting: They've only conceded 14 goals in 43 games. That’s the kind of stat you double-check. 🧐

Despite going behind, Burnley managed to turn it around, with strange calls from the ref, red cards, and all the tension, it turned into a bit of a madness. As for Leeds: if they beat Stoke City at Elland Road on Monday and Sheffield United fail to win away at Burnley the same day, they’ll secure their ticket to the Premier League. Overall, a massive Monday is on the way for Championship fans.

West Ham 1 vs Southampton 1 / C.Palace 0 vs Bournemouth 0

Since parting ways with Ivan Juric, I think Southampton have been playing better football. I thought the same last week against Aston Villa, until they conceded, as a team they looked more compact. Under Simon Rusk, they picked up their first point in London, and snatching it in stoppage time made it all more dramatic. That point also took them level with Derby County’s infamous 2008 record, 11 points. Apparently, they’re now flirting with not becoming the worst team in Premier League history.

As for Palace, after conceding 10 goals in their last two matches, they played this one a bit safer. From Bournemouth's perspective, even though the match wasn't particularly satisfying (xG: 0.37 vs. 0.69), they've now set a new club record with 49 Premier League points. It's a milestone that reflects the solid foundation they've been building under Andoni Iraola.

Everton 0 vs Manchester City 2

It was a really valuable three points for Manchester City as they are in a tough race for the top five position in the Premier League. Nico O'Reilly, who scored the last goal against Crystal Palace last week, broke the deadlock against Everton. He ranks as the fourth-youngest player to score in consecutive Premier League matches for Manchester City, and the youngest player since Phil Foden in June 2020 (20 years and 25 days). Originally a central midfielder, O'Reilly has been converted to a left-back by Guardiola. He’s now using his attacking instincts in an unfamiliar position, and as he sharpens his defensive skills, he’ll become a more balanced full-back.​ I believe he's been Manchester City's most important internal transfer this season. Next game for Manchester City: Aston Villa at the Etihad Stadium. It's going to be a cracking match!

Figure 3: Nico O'Reilly pass Heatmap 2024-25 season

Brentford 4 vs Brighton 2

Brentford ended their eight-game winless run at home with this victory. The last home win was in December. For Brighton, the defeat was only part of the story. A worrying moment occurred as Jan Paul van Hecke had to be subbed off following a head collision with Turkish player Yunus Emre Konak. The Dutch defender left the pitch with an oxygen mask after receiving nearly 15 minutes of treatment, a scary moment that left everyone concerned.

We should speak about Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa's collaboration, because they have scored in seven different league matches together this season, putting them on the verge of matching the all-time record for teammates scoring in the same game during a single Premier League campaign.​🔥 Additionally, Wissa leads Brentford’s top scorer in the Premier League with 42 goals, and Mbeumo chases him with just 2 goals behind with 40 goals. Both of them overtook Ivan Toney's record of 36 goals earlier this season. This duo is awesome!

Figure 4: Teammates both scoring in the same Premier League game

Aston Villa 4 vs Newcastle United 1

Aston Villa earned an important win in the Top 5 race after beating Newcastle United 4-1. With this result, they are now just two points behind their rivals. xG report reveals 2.28 vs 1.02, touches in the opponent’s box 31 vs 36, shots inside the box 19 vs 8. Newcastle played their third match in six days, and in my opinion, it definitely showed physically. As for Aston Villa, they’ve managed to regain their rhythm and tempo after a tough midweek. It might actually be the perfect time to fully shift gears, and Emery seems to be delighted by this. Tielemans keeps delivering brilliant performances week after week, while Rogers, Watkins, and Maatsen are the other vital parts of the team. I can’t wait for Tuesday (Manchester City vs Aston Villa), it will be a really exciting game! 👀

Barcelona 4 vs Celta Vigo 3

In a rollercoaster game, Barcelona came from 3-1 down to win 4-3, with Raphinha scoring the decisive penalty in stoppage time. Borja Iglesia's hat-trick shocked the crowd, but Hansi Flick's changes turned the game around. Lamine Yamal started the game on the bench and came on after the 3-1 scoreline and provided a crucial assist for Raphinha's equalising goal. xG 2.46 vs 1.97, touches in the opposition box 34 vs 23. Interesting fact: Borja Iglesias became only the second away player to score a hat-trick against Barcelona in LaLiga in the last twenty years, following Diego Forlan in May 2005. Next game for Barcelona: Mallorca at home, before they play the Copa del Rey final against Real Madrid next Saturday in Seville.

Serie A Round-Up: Key Moments & Results

Lecce 0 vs Como 3 / Monza 0 vs Napoli 1 / Roma 1 vs Verona 0
We’ve reported Assane Diao before, and he’s been on fire lately. Como claimed their first three-game winning streak of the season, and Diao was the star, scoring twice. In both goals, his finishing was flawless. Speaking of standout performers, Nico Paz also had an excellent game. Napoli earned a crucial 3 points against Monza. Steve McTominay, who scored twice last week against Empoli, kept his form high with a stunning header to clinch the win. Another key player for Napoli was Amir Rrahmani, who was an absolute rock at the back. He made 8 clearances, won every aerial duel (4/4), completed 91% of his passes (96/105), and even hit 12 accurate long balls out of 16. Clean, composed, and dominant. AS Roma ended their winless run after draws with Juventus and Lazio, thanks to a Shomurodov goal, assisted by Matias Soule. I’m telling you, that left foot is something special. Next up, Roma faces a tough away game against Inter. Serie A is relentless!

Bologna 1 vs Inter 0
Orsolini's stunning 93rd-minute volley that electrified Renato Dall'Ara was one of the great moments of Serie A this weekend. Defeating Inter is no easy job this season; only Milan, Fiorentina, and Juventus managed it before Bologna became the fourth team to do so. Orsolini is having a career-best season, with 12 goals and 3 assists already surpassing his numbers from last season under Thiago Motta. This result has surely raised Napoli's hopes of winning the title. Inter now face a demanding schedule: a Coppa Italia semi-final second leg against Milan midweek, followed by a meeting with Roma over the weekend, and then challenging Barcelona games ahead.

Featured Content: Using DeadBall’s custom simulator, running 10,000 simulations with real remaining fixtures, the below graphic shows where each team could finish: from dream scenario to disaster, and the most likely outcome in between.

Figure 5: Serie A ranking simulation

Psg 2 vs Le Havre 1 / Marseille 5 vs Montpellier 1

Four days after qualifying for the Champions League semi-finals, PSG returned to Ligue 1 action with a heavily rotated squad. Only Achraf Hakimi and Bradley Barcola remained in the starting lineup from the previous match against Aston Villa, though they won without problems. Luis Enrique’s team won their tenth game in a row. Doue was the key player, and second goal assist provider Senny Mayulu (18) was also impressive.

Marseille are a team that brings joy regardless of the result. They’re one of those rare teams where you never feel like your time has been wasted watching them. The stats tell the story of the game: xG 3.90 vs 0.25, and 35 touches in the opposition box compared to just 13. Montpellier is the only team in the league who have not kept a clean sheet after 30 matches.

Mason Greenwood scored twice, taking his Ligue 1 goal record to 18 for the season. He’s now among Marseille’s top scorers in Ligue 1 over the last twenty five years in their debut season at the club: Bafetimbi Gomis (2016-17) – 20 goals, Didier Drogba (2003-04) – 19 goals and Mason Greenwood (2024-25) – 18 goals. I like that!

Figure 6: Marseille’s Top Goal Scorers in the Debut Season

Fulham 1 vs Chelsea 2

Chelsea faced a crucial away game at Craven Cottage following their Conference League loss to Legia Warszawa. Maresca's team maintained their Champions League qualification hopes with a goal from Pedro Neto in stoppage time. It was a big moment for Tyrique George, who made an impact as a substitute, scoring his first Premier League goal just five minutes after coming on for Nicolas Jackson. Chelsea's last away win was on 8th December 2024, against Tottenham, which will increase the value of this victory. Count them on in the fight for a Champions League spot.

Ipswich Town 0 vs Arsenal 4

Arsenal carried their high morale and tempo into the Ipswich game, Gabriel Martinelli became the fourth-youngest player in Arsenal's history to score 50 goals across all competitions: 1-Bukayo Saka (22Y 159D), 2-Cesc Fabregas (23Y 134D), 3-Theo Walcott (23Y 235D) and 4-Gabriel Martinelli (23Y 306D). Bukayo Saka was withdrawn in the 57th minute, having been earlier fouled by Leif Davis, however there is no serious injury concern. Since the PSG test is coming up in 10 days, an unexpected injury is the last thing Arsenal fans need at the moment.

I believe Arsenal's most impressive players were Martin Ødegaard and Declan Rice; Ødegaard was the one with the most touches (115) in the match. He completed 90 of his 101 passes with a 90% accuracy rate, delivered 9/9 accurate long balls, and had 16 touches in the opposition penalty area. Also, he provided 5 key passes and finished with an xA (expected assist) of 0.48. Declan Rice, meanwhile, completed 80 out of 84 passes with a 95% accuracy rate, made three key passes, and won four out of seven duels.

Figure 7: Martin Ødegaard 2024-25 season Attacking Third Pass Heatmap

Manchester United 0 vs Wolverhampton 1

When Vitor Pereira took charge of Wolves in December, they were 13 points behind Manchester United. Fast forward to now, after five wins in a row, they’re level on points with United. Since the beginning, it has been a fantastic job by Pereira, well deserved. We can all kind of agree that the Premier League doesn’t seem to hold much meaning for United right now. However, where they currently sit in the table is still far from acceptable for the club. Their only real chance at Champions League football next season? Winning the Europa League final in Bilbao on May 21. I still have big questions in my mind about this scenario.

Keeping that in mind, Amorim relied heavily on rotation, giving minutes to some of the club’s young talents. Tyler Fredricson made his senior debut at centre-back, and Harry Amass got a run at left wing-back, and both looked confident and tidy on the ball despite the overall dip in the team’s performance. Seventeen-year-old Obi Martin also came on for the final twenty minutes. In terms of threat, United created more, 1.32 xG to 0.23, and 26 touches in the opposition box compared to Wolves’ 8, but they just couldn’t find the finishing touch. If you missed it, Sarabia’s free-kick was an absolute gem, definitely one of the goals of the week.

Leicester 0 vs Liverpool 1

Liverpool are now on the brink of a title party. If Arsenal lose against Crystal Palace on Wednesday, or if they beat Spurs just four days later, the mission will be accomplished! They dominated with 2.57 xG compared to Leicester's 0.27, touches 48 in the opposition box against 13, and with 10 clear chances, they played well enough to claim the win. I’m not even mentioning Hermansen’s heroic goalkeeping performance for Leicester. Anyway, it will be a very eventful week for Liverpool fans all over the world. And, with the increasing rumours of a summer move to Real Madrid, that moment might just have been Trent Alexander-Arnold’s last goodbye at Anfield.

Real Madrid 1 vs Athletic Bilbao 0

Real Madrid kept their title hopes alive with a stunning goal from Fede Valverde in stoppage time. It was a completely two-different half. First 45 minutes, Real Madrid were unable to create any chances against a Bilbao side that simply defended well. However, in the second half, Ancelotti's team came out with a different attitude and had all sorts of opportunities.

Real Madrid's dominance was evident in the stats: xG 1.51 vs. 0.20, touches in the opposition box 40 vs. 8, shots on target 7 vs. 1, clear chances 3 vs. 0, and corners 14 vs. 1. Valverde, playing as a right-back, was the hero of the match, supported by Modric, who had 92% pass accuracy, delivered 5 key passes, and completed 8 of 12 long passes. Tchouameni also impressed, winning 12 of 17 duels, 6 of 9 aerial battles, completing 5 of 7 long passes, and achieving 90% overall pass accuracy.

Figure 8: Federico Valverde Shotmap 2024-25 La Liga

Snap Recap: 📸⚽️⚡️No time for deep dives, just football espresso shots

📌 Las Palmas ruined Atletico Madrid’s weekend with another stoppage-time winner.
📌 Bayern Munich has increased its lead to an 8-point lead in the Bundesliga with only four games remaining, after B.Leverkusen's dropping points against St.Pauli.
📌 Union Berlin vs Stuttgart somehow turned an XG of 1.33 vs 0.94 into an 8-goal drama. (4-4)
📌 In the Women’s Champions League, Lyon beat Arsenal 2-1 and Barcelona crushed Chelsea 4-1 to book their spot in the Lisbon final on May 24.
📌 Hamburg drew 2-2 away to Schalke in a game that had XG chaos written all over it (1.40 vs 3.13). Schalke played 87 minutes with 10 men after Kenan Karaman was sent off in the 3rd minute.
📌 Jonathan David is still cooking, 2 goals and 1 assist vs Auxerre now totals at 25 goals and 11 assists. The Canadian forward is 100% entering the summer transfer chat.
📌 St Etienne kept their Ligue 1 survival hopes alive with a 2-1 Rhone derby win over Lyon.
📌 Utrecht stunned Ajax 4-0 in what might be the most interesting result of the week. Even crazier when you see the XG: 0.83 vs 0.81.
📌 Villarreal 2 - Real Sociedad 2: Oyarzabal is enjoying a career season, now on 17 goals and 7 assists.
📌 Valverde: 6 goals from 0.10 xG, a dreamer with a cannon, sniping from another postcode.
📌 Mourinho’s Fenerbahçe: Special One, Falling Fast; a 3-3 draw with Kayserispor, and the title dreams are done for another year.
📌 DeadBall’s Simulator is in testing; no inputs, no bias, just math, fixtures, and football’s chaotic truth. This week, it caught Serie A slipping.

That’s all for this week! We will publish the technical part of DoppelsScout in midweek.

Thanks for reading each week and being here. 💚