Dead Ball Digest: 90 Minutes x 100 Stories

Good afternoon, this is Dead Ball Analytics Digest. We bring you sharp football insights every Monday, like Bielsa’s training notes but with less Spanish.

Aston Villa 2 vs Tottenham 0

Aston Villa maintained their Champions League dreams alive with a 2-0 win over a heavily rotated Tottenham side. xG 1.39 vs 0.51, and they had 40 touches in the opposition box compared to just 8 for the visitors, showing their dominance throughout the match. Konsa's touch from a set-piece, and Kamara's shot from distance decided the game's result. It was Spurs’ 21st defeat of the season, and worryingly, Southampton is still the only team they’ve beaten in the last three months.

Ange Postecoglou gave a chance to 17-year-old winger Mikey Moore and started with Sergio Reguilon at left-back, while Heung-min Son returned to the lineup after a spell on the sidelines. It's the first time since the 2015-16 season, the South Korean international ends the league (7 goals) below double digits, if he doesn't bag a hat-trick in the last game. Next game for Aston Villa: Manchester United away, before that, they’ll be hoping Manchester City slip up against Bournemouth on Thursday to keep their hopes in their own hands.

Chelsea 1 vs Manchester United 0

Chelsea defeated Manchester United 1-0 with a Marc Cucurella header, taking a big step toward securing a Champions League spot. With the top five qualifying for the UCL this season, Chelsea head into the final matchday with an 11-goal advantage over Aston Villa. Assuming Manchester United will not concede many goals at home against Aston Villa, Chelsea’s fate is very much in their own hands. A win away at Nottingham Forest would be enough; no need to check the other matches.

To recap the match: With Nicolas Jackson suspended, Enzo Maresca gave academy striker George a surprise start as the central striker. George had some promising moments, but he struggled physically against the likes of Maguire and Lindelöf. Neither team was so dominant as xG stats reflect Chelsea's 0.82 compared to United’s 0.29. Defensively, Reece James, who assisted Marc Cucurella's header and Adarabioyo, were notable for Chelsea, while Cole Palmer, despite not contributing a goal or assist, brought energy and dynamism to the attack (2 key passes, 88% pass accuracy, xA 0.27, 5/8 duels won). Turning to Manchester United, their performance was another disappointing one. They’ve been eight games without a win and suffered their ninth away defeat of the season. Now the focus shifts to Thursday’s Europa League final, their last chance to gain something from the season.

Figure 1: Manchester United historical points / League ranking analysis

Crystal Palace 1 vs Manchester City 0

Crystal Palace claimed their first major title and a spot in the Europa League by defeating Manchester City 1-0 in the FA Cup final at Wembley. It is the biggest achievement in the club’s history. Massive respect to Ollie Glasner, after winning the Europa League with Frankfurt, he now leads Palace to a historic success.

Guardiola's team dominated the statistics, creating 2.30 xG compared to Palace's 0.67 and having 59 touches in the opposition box, while Palace only had 14. However, the finishing wasn’t clinical enough, and they simply couldn’t find a way past Dean Henderson. They missed several chances, including Omar Marmoush's missed penalty. Man of the match? There is no doubt, Dean Henderson. He delivered an impressive performance with 6 saves, 1 penalty save, finishing the game with an xGOT (Expected Goals on Target Conceded) of 1.58 from 7 shots on target faced.

The last time these two teams met in the league was back in April, in a game Crystal Palace had stunned City by going 2-0 up, but Manchester City came back to win it 5-2. Unfortunately, not this time. Next game Manchester City: Bournemouth on Thursday and Champions League still not guaranteed, so it will be intense.

Figure 2 : Crystal Palace vs Manchester City FA Cup Final Key Stats

B.Dortmund 3 vs Holstein Kiel 0

Borussia Dortmund managed to finish a turbulent season in fourth place and booked their spot in next season’s Champions League. It's true, Frankfurt’s 3-1 away win over Freiburg played an important role, but make no mistake, Niko Kovac’s side really fought for the fourth place. 22 points in their last 8 matches, not given, earned. Every one of them fought for.

Back in March, after a 2-0 loss to Leipzig, Dortmund were sitting 11th in the table, ten points behind the top four. A Champions League finish felt almost unimaginably far away. But somehow, they turned it around. In front of 81,365 fans, Dortmund started aggressively and led 1-0 after Guirassy’s penalty in just second minute. With Kiel going down to ten men in the 8th minute, the game became easier. Sabitzer and Nmecha sealed the victory in the second half with brilliant goals. Felix Nmecha was the team’s top performer: He finished with 98% pass accuracy, won 6 out of 8 duels, had 10 touches inside the opponent's box, and scored the goal that settled the result.

Figure 3: Borussia Dortmund Performance Before/After Niko Kovac

Freiburg 1 vs E.Frankfurt 3

Eintracht Frankfurt have qualified for the Champions League for just the second time in their history, a reward for a season of solid football. Credit goes to Dino Toppmöller and his ambitious team for their impressive achievement. When Freiburg took the lead with their Japanese forward Doan, the live league table showed Freiburg heading into the Champions League. However, before halftime, Knauff equalised following a big mistake by defender Lienhart.

In the second half, Frankfurt took control and scored two goals through Kristensen and Skhiri, turning the tense game comfortably in their favour. xG was in favour of Frankfurt 2.14 to 0.74. Hugo Ekitike completed the season with 22 goals and 12 assists, and I really wonder if Frankfurt will keep him in the squad for next season.

Sporting Lisbon 2 vs V. Guimarães 0

Sporting Lisbon clinched their 21st league title and second in a row with a 2-0 home win over Guimaraes. After Ruben Amorim left for Manchester United in November, there was a short four-week period under Joao Perreira, before Rui Borges stepped in and took charge. He steadied the team and won the title in just a few months. Match summary: Lisbon dominated the whole game, with both goals, one from Pedro Gonçalves and one from Viktor Gyökeres, being spectacular.

Viktor Gyökeres ended the season with 39 league goals and reached an incredible total of 53 across all competitions. The Swedish striker had a sensational year and is set to be one of the top names on the transfer market this summer. When asked about what’s next in the post-match press conference, Borges didn’t hold back: “The future, my friends? Forget it. These four months felt like four years... Let me win, enjoy it and breathe a little.” A sincere reflection of just how intense this journey has been.

🇫🇷 Ligue 1 2024/25 – The Final Table & What It Means

The top three places in France’s Ligue 1 had already been decided, but the race for the final Champions League spot, fourth place, was still wide open until last week. In the end, Nice claimed it with a dominant 6-0 win over Brest, taking the last Champions League qualifier spot. Despite this, they need to win two consecutive ties to reach the CL group stage, which will begin early August. Anyway, INEOS Group liked this one. Lille, finishing fifth, booked a Europa League ticket, while sixth-placed Lyon will play in the Europa League qualifiers.

Strasbourg’s incredible form in the second half of the season had them dreaming of a Champions League spot, but back-to-back losses against Angers and Le Havre in the final two weeks meant they couldn’t finish well, eventually settling for seventh place. The relegated teams are Montpellier and Saint-Etienne. Reims will face Metz in the relegation play-off, which will be played over two legs in a knockout format.

Highlights from last week's matches: Nice finished the season on a high note, dominating Brest with a 6-0 victory and an impressive 5.69 xG. Laborde scored twice, and Guessand also played a key role in the win. Marseille closed the season strongly, beating Rennes 4-2 at the Velodrome. Mason Greenwood missed a penalty but was still man of the match with two goals and providing an assist to Rabiot, taking his league total to 21 goals, 5 assists.

PSG, already focused on the Champions League final, still eased past Auxerre 3-1 with a masterclass from Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, who recorded 74 touches, 2 goals, 7 shots (5 on target, 0.71 xG), 2 big chances created, 3 key passes, 49/51 accurate passes (96%), and 0.69 xA. Lastly, Lyon secured a 2-0 win over Angers with an excellent performance from Lacazette, who finished the match with 2 goals, 94% pass accuracy, 2 key passes, 2.28 xGOT, 9 touches in the opposition box, and a total of 2.61 xG.

In the Ligue 1 Golden Boot race, Mason Greenwood shared top spot with Ousmane Dembele, both finishing on 21 goals. Just behind them are Kalimuendo (17), Jonathan David (16), Lacazette (15), Barcola and Emegha with 14 goals each.

Figure 4: France Ligue 1 2024-25 season goals and asists leaders

Arsenal 1 vs Newcastle United 0

The title race and relegation have already been over, Arsenal are comfortably in second place, however, the fight for the remaining Champions League spots is wide open in PL. Five teams, separated by just one point, remain in action. Newcastle United, with their +22 goal difference, hold the upper hand. If they can defeat Everton at home on Sunday, they're back in the Champions League after a year away.

Back to the game, despite the goalless first half, both sides had their moments in attack, with goalkeepers Raya and Pope keeping the score level with some crucial saves. In the second half, Declan Rice broke the deadlock and Arsenal won 1-0.

xG was 0.65 vs 1.6, with 7 vs 10 shots inside the box, 4 vs 5 on target, and 55 vs 46 final third entries, showing just how tight and competitive it was. With this result Arsenal continue their excellent home record against Newcastle, just one defeat in their last 21 Premier League meetings at the Emirates (W18 D2 L1).

Barcelona 2 vs Villarreal 3

Barcelona had already won the title earlier this week. They finally lifted the trophy and celebrated a well-deserved championship after the game. As for the match itself, Villarreal benefited from a relaxed Barça side and took all three points. The fans witnessed stunning goals from Yamal and Fermin Lopez. In total, xG 1.26 vs 1.75, 44 vs 11 touches in the opposition box. Also, tell me you played against Barcelona without telling me you played against Barcelona (332 passes vs 51 in the final third).🤯 We’d like to analyze Marcelino Toral and Villarreal's campaign after the season. Just some numbers to have an idea about them: Only Barcelona (629) and Real Madrid (603) have taken more shots than them this season (518), and when it comes to xG, they sit right behind the giants too with 63.43, compared to Barça’s 86.67 and Madrid’s 72.21. They’re not just competing; they’re pushing into elite territory.

🇮🇹 Serie A: Title Race Heats Up 🔥 UCL Battle Tightens

Serie A is the last title race to be decided in Europe’s top five leagues, and Sunday brought the drama, with every match kicking off at the same time.

🔵⚫ Inter wasted a golden opportunity
xG 1.13 vs 2.09, touches in the opposition box 33 vs 17. Inter had a golden opportunity to overtake leadership after Napoli’s draw at Parma; however failed to take advantage with a 2-2 draw at home to Lazio. Despite twice taking the lead with goals from Yann Bisseck and Dumfires, Simone Inzaghi’s team couldn’t hold on. Marcus Thuram ended his goal drought dating back to January, but couldn't help his team avoid draw.

🔵⚪ Napoli Hold On to the Dream
Napoli made a mistake at Parma, a frustrating goalless draw (xG 0.37 vs 0.38) which could have been costly. But then came a late surprise result from Giuseppe Meazza. Inter dropped points in the dying minutes of the game against Lazio. Two wins in the last eight away games, yet still top, Conte's team are riding their luck in this title race. Still, they have their fate in their own hands. A victory against Cagliari guarantees them to win the Scudetto.

⚪️⚫️ Kenan Yıldız Shines as Juve Stay in UCL Hunt
xG 1.78 vs 0.33. Despite suffering with back-to-back draws against Bologna and Lazio, Juventus head into the final matchday in a strong position. If they defeat Venezia in the last game, they will directly qualify for the Champions League next season. Since the arrival of Igor Tudor, the biggest difference has been the volume of rotations and increased internal competition. This match also marked the first time in eight games Tudor used a back four, in contrast to the previously used 3-4-2-1 system. Locatelli and McKennie showed solid performances in the midfield together. Kenan Yıldız was the man of the match: he provided two assists, had the most touches in the opposition box (10), created six chances, and completed three key passes.

🔴🟡 Roma Keep Hopes Alive – Milan Down to 10 After 20 Mins
Roma took full advantage of an early red card to Santiago Gimenez, beating Milan 3-1 in a critical game. With this result, Giallorossi continues their run for the Champions League, one point behind fourth-placed Juve. Milan finds itself in ninth place and out of the European cups. It was Ranieri's last game at the Olimpico and his 500th match in Serie A as a coach. Roma fans showed their respects to him before the kick-off. When Ranieri was appointed in November, the team was 4 points above the relegation zone, and they performed an incredible fight for the European spot. See, our Simulator gives them even around 17.8% of a chance to take a seat at UCL next season!

Figure 5: Italy Serie A Final Week Predictions

According to The Simulator, the final matchday in Serie A may not bring surprises, but the door isn’t fully closed. Napoli lift the Scudetto in 95% of our 10,000 simulations. Juventus secured the final Champions League spot in over 77% of them. The odds suggest a stable finish. But what about the other 5%? In 500 simulated universes, Inter steal the title. The unlikely can still happen, and maybe that’s exactly why we love this game.

⚽️ Quickfire Takeaways⚡️: No time for deep dives, just football espresso shots

📌Porto secured a comfortable 3–0 home win over Nacional in the last game of the season. Rodrigo Mora was on the scoresheet again, netting the team’s final goal of the night. The young talent completes the season with 10 goals and 4 assists.

📌Harry Kane finished the Bundesliga season as top scorer for the second consecutive time, netting 26 goals. Patrik Schick and Serhou Guirassy tied for second place, each netting 21 goals.

📌PSV Eindhoven won their second consecutive Eredivisie title and the 26th in their history, by defeating Sparta Rotterdam 3-1 away from home. In the Eredivisie, Ajax were nine points ahead with five games left, but they lost shockingly and handed the title to PSV.

📌Sam Steijn finished the Eredivisie season as the top scorer with 24 goals in 33 matches. The Dutch midfielder has completed a move to Feyenoord for a record €10 million fee plus bonuses.

📌Bundesliga 1 and 2 wrapped up the season with some final-day drama, and now all eyes turn to the promotion-relegation play-off. Germany's longest-ever serving professional coach Frank Schmidt's team Heidenheim will face Elversberg in a two-leg Bundesliga Play Out. The winner will earn a spot in the Bundesliga next season.

📌Everton said goodbye to Goodison Park with a 2-0 win over Southampton, with Iliman Ndiaye’s two goals.

📌Atalanta came from behind twice to clinch a 3-2 away win against Patrick Vieira’s Genoa. Mateo Retegui scored the last goal, netting his 25th Serie A goal of the season.

📌Galatasaray defeated Kayserispor 3-0 at home to secure their 25th league title, and their third in a row. Meanwhile, with two match days to go, Victor Osimhen leads the Golden Boot race with 25 goals.

📌 Liverpool are preparing to sign Jeremie Frimpong as a replacement for Trent Alexander-Arnold. The deal is expected to be finalized and announced later this week.

📌Atletico Madrid delivered a dominant performance in their 4-1 win over Real Betis, finishing the match with an xG of 4.86 to 0.93. Julián Alvarez played a key role with two goals and an assist, leading the attack in style.

📌Ajax have parted ways with head coach Francesco Farioli, the club confirmed.

That’s all for now, but keep an eye out midweek, we’ve got a little something cooking. 👀